Set pieces and high pressure: previewing Birmingham City

As Birmingham come to town, the themes are familiar: patience, time and the need to build consistency and chemistry. It is, John Eustace says, “very similar” to last season’s start.

Instability is the enemy for any manager, and Eustace is no different.  It is difficult to manage a side who have lost thirty goals from last season in the shape of the injured Carlton Morris and Patrick Agyemang, as well as former loanee Ben Brereton Díaz. But he concedes that “people aren’t interested in that”. Football is a results driven business.

“I think when you've worked throughout pre-season at a certain thing, hoping that certain players will come in for different spots and that doesn't happen and then you have to adjust over the start of the season to try and find a way to get a result and hence you're not having a stable team.

“You're trying to get the right balance to pick a team that's going to get results until you can get that settled team.”

Hence, Eustace argues, the rotation at right back, a position nobody seems able to secure for themselves as adjusts the role to suit the opposition. He said: “We've played a back five already this season as well so it's not a major issue. It's about getting the right solutions in front of them and where I feel we can hurt teams or where I feel we can defensively be very solid.”

And there was another nod to this lack of a settled team in Thursday’s pre-match press conference when the Rams head coach discussed the “three debuts” that were made on Wednesday night, by which we can assume he means the first starts for Eiran Cashin, David Ozoh and Mo Fuseini.

The Ghanaian forward was also pursued by Birmingham this summer before joining Derby and Eustace was full of praise for his performance on his first start against West Brom: “I think he was very exciting, wasn't he? He ultimately got the lad [Baggies right back Brayann Pereira] sent off. He could have got someone else sent off as well. I think he's coming with a point to prove. He's obviously very forward-thinking and we've now got to try and work on his consistency in that final third.”

But it is not just the Union Saint Gilloise loanee, across the board, Derby need to improve in that final third. While the Rams rank tenth in the Championship for touches in the opposition box, they are struggling to convert them into chances.

Eustace’s side have scored the joint-lowest goals per match (0.80) alongside Lincoln, while only Charlton (3.80) have created less xG than Derby’s 5.40. They also rank in the 16^th percentile globally for non-penalty shots per 90 this season.

Former NHL centre Wayne Gretzky famously said that: “You miss 100 per cent of the shots you don’t take.”

Of course, many of Derby’s touches in the opposition box will come in non-shooting positions, but could Eustace be onto something when he asks for “more belief in the final third”? Maybe The Rams just need to shoot more?

Birmingham City

Despite only suffering their first league defeat of the season at Norwich on Wednesday night, Chris Davies side have made a disappointingly slow start to the season. Sitting 15^th ahead of matchday seven, they have just the one league win to boast, 2-1 at Wrexham in case you were wondering.

Lining up in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 depending on how you classify the 10 or second striker, Saturday’s visitors have favoured a high-pressing approach under Davies. When compared to other teams on Statsbomb records, they rank in the 89^th percentile for opposition passing accuracy, with just 72 per cent completed. And they are in the 91^st percentile for shots faced one-on-one with the keeper (1.4 clear shots faced per 90).

Going forward, their numbers are pretty average, bar one standout in set piece xG. Their 0.40 per 90 puts them in the 93^rd percentile. A big improvement from last season’s 0.30/90 (66^th percentile). Derby’s was 0.31/90 (71^st percentile) last season, but sits at just 0.15/90 this season, putting The Rams 2026-27 figure in the 4^th percentile globally.

While their woes are not on the level of Derby’s, having scored three more goals, conceded three less, and amassed three more points. Pressure is certainly starting to mount on their manager. Any credit in the bank from last season, which ended with a five-game unbeaten run to secure a top ten finish, does not seem to be helping Davies much. It may just be paper talk, perhaps fuelled by the harsh nature of what happened to Eustace, but you do get the impression that both sides could really do with the win.

Connections

Alongside John Eustace, there are three former Blues in the Derby squad – albeit one is rather tenuous.

Dion Sanderson – After spending the first half of the 2021-22 season on loan with Birmingham, Eustace brought the defender back to St Andrews on loan for the 2022-23 season before making his signing permanent. Sanderson, who became captain under the now Derby boss, was part of the Blues side that were relegated in 2024. He made 97 appearances in the second city, scoring twice before leaving to join Eustace’s Blackburn on loan in January 2025 and later reuniting with him at Pride Park.

Eiran Cashin – He spent the first half of last season on loan at St Andrews, but the former Ireland under-21 international struggled for game time, making just 13 appearances. Some of those, such as against Derby on Boxing Day, were at left back too.

Bobby Clark – Clark spent time in Birmingham’s youth set-up when his dad Lee was first team boss. I did warn you that it was tenuous.

And there are three former Rams on the Birmingham City books too.

Ryan Allsop - Was Derby’s number one during the administration-stricken 2021-22 season, making 33 appearances before leaving to join Cardiff in June 2022 – August 2021 – June 2022, 33 apps.

Lee Buchanan – A Rams academy graduate, the left back made 75 first team appearances for Derby, scoring once. A left back by trade, he also left Pride Park in the summer of 2022, joining German outfit Werder Bremen. He moved to Birmingham a year later and was part of the side who got relegated before winning League One with a record 111 points alongside Allsop. Neither have featured in the league for the Blues yet this season, though.

Max Bird – Another product of Moor Farm, Bird made his senior debut in the EFL Cup in 2017 and would go one to make 200 appearances, scoring 10 times. A regular fixture in midfield under Philip Cocu, Wayne Rooney and Paul Warne, he joined Bristol City in January 2024 but returned on loan for the remainder of the season too secure promotion, including scoring on the final day versus Carlisle United.

But don’t expect to see him on Saturday; the 25-year-old is currently injured.