Big injury blows and new Hedges ahead of Cardiff clash
- Jack Bryan
- Aug 20
- 4 min read
Would you like the good news or the bad news first?
I’ll give you the bad news, as it is partial context to the good news. Matt Clarke will miss three months through injury, Derry Murkin will miss up to four. After just a singular league game, we are rapidly hurtling towards injury crisis territory.
Okay, that is only two, with Patrick Agyemang’s long term absence making it three. But the importance of these players to John Eustace can hardly be overstated. Alongside arguably The Rams’ most asset, now their reigning player of the year and most impactful January signing face spells on the sidelines.
Plus, the man who has scored both of Derby’s goals in competitive games this season is “touch and go” for this weekend, Eustace revealed during Thursday’s pre-Cardiff press conference.
Murkin was injured when warming up for the Under-21s last week and has suffered a hamstring problem.
Eustace explained: “Derry’s unfortunately going to be out for I think three or four months. So, he’s had obviously a terrible injury to his hamstring. It’s a shame for Derry because obviously he’s come in at the end of last season and he did terrifically well.”
As if it was not already becoming so by the day, Derby’s need for new signings is even more pertinent. The good news is that one is through the door and he will provide cover for Derby’s number two.
Yes, poor Ryan Hedges had the unenviable task of cheering a weary flock up when his signing on a one-year deal with the option for a further year was announced on Thursday evening. And of course, the arrival of yet another ex-Blackburn man has drawn focus in both Derbyshire and Lancashire, but the Derby head coach’s position on this long-running conversation was clear.
He explained: “I won’t just bring them in just because I know them. They’ve got to improve the squad.”
Hedges, 32, featured in Derby’s first two pre-season outings against Alfreton and Freiburg as a trialist, before going off injured in both. But the thrice-capped Welsh international has recovered to continue training at Moor Farm. “[He] can play left back, left wing back, left wing, [and] right wing,” according to Eustace, “so his versatility certainly helps the group.”
Given the lack of options out wide, Hedges always felt like a sensible, if not flashy depth option. And with Murkin’s injury, his profile as a much more attack-minded, ball-carrying left back could now be vital to how Derby want to play.
Stat Attack
The numbers I have crunched back this up. But as with any versatile player, they must come with the caveat that percentiles are compared only to other full backs, despite the fact he also played as a winger (and a centre back against Derby last season). Shooting numbers would therefore be a grossly unfair battle – Hedges of course gazumps Murkin – but there are some other fascinating comparisons.
Delivery-wise a successful crosses percentage of 23.9 per cent puts Hedges in the 62nd percentile compared to Murkin’s 15.3 per cent which ranks him in the 26th percentile. Despite this, Murkin’s successful crosses per 90 number is much closer to Hedges, 0.82 compared to 0.97. And in terms of assists, Murkin’s 0.27/90 puts him in the 92nd percentile compared to Hedges’ 0.11 (69th percentile). The difference in their expected assists (xA) is much smaller with Murkin’s 0.16 and Hedges’ 0.17, indicating that those finishing Murkin’s crosses have been much clinical. A good sign for Derby.
All of this suggests that Murkin delivers a higher number of generally lower-quality crosses. But that his percentiles for chances and big chances created are just three per cent lower than Hedges is highly impressive.
Comparison in their defensive numbers is more nuanced than it first seems considering Murkin’s 9.05 defensive contributions per 90 (87th percentile) to Hedges’ 5.54 (34th percentile).
Murkin’s tackles and interceptions per 90 (2.20 and 1.28) see him in the 68th and 72nd percentiles compared to Hedges (2.40 and 1.31) which put him in the 74th and 75th percentiles. Hedges has, unsurprisingly, won possession more often in the final third by a margin of 0.09/90 and been dribbled past 0.08/90 less than Murkin. Though both are in the top 20 per cent for the first and 25 per cent for the second.
Welshman Hedges’ standout defensive stat has to be recoveries, though. For which he is in the 90th percentile, showing excellent work-rate and reading of the game. The counter to that would be that his 1.48 fouls committed /90, which puts him in the 12th percentile with fewer better for this specific instance. 2cm taller than Murkin, Hedges should still bring a presence, but there will be concern over his fitness record too having played more than 2500 league minutes just once in four full Championship seasons.
And on Saturday, Hedges will possess something no number of stats can account for. As a Swansea academy graduate he should be more than up for facing Cardiff.
Possession obsessives
The Bluebirds' last trip to Pride Park is probably remembered for one thing, that Ebou Adams miss.
While The Rams will need to be more clinical, the ability to maintain an intense press and threaten on the transition will be vital against Brian Barry-Murphy’s men. A disciple of Pep Guardiola, he was Rams first team coach Ben Wilkinson’s predecessor as manager of the Manchester City Elite Development Squad.
It certainly shows in his style of play: Cardiff had the highest average possession figure (63.1 per cent) of any EFL team last season with their accurate passes per match (433.0) only beaten by Middlesbrough’s 436.8. Furthermore, they made the least interceptions, clearances and fouls of any League One side, while being top-scorers and maintaining the third-best defensive record.
These stats make it seem remarkable that they finished second, 12 points behind Lincoln.
This is exactly the sort of game that the Derby of last season would have thrived on. Stay alert and press intensely before picking the opponents off with a rapid break, using pace and power to overwhelm the defence - Cardiff’s is particularly light due to injury woes. However, with the likes of Murkin and Agyemang out, will The Rams be able to replicate this?
Among all of the injury troubles ahead of Saturday, Ryan Hedges’ arrival brings some relief for John Eustace. And I have good news for Cardiff too, surely it cannot snow this weekend?
Cardiff fan Tomas Taylor joined me and Nigel to preview the match.
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