Duffy arrives in time for Den trip: what will he bring to Derby?

Derby may currently be “in a relegation battle” but after the spirited draw at Bramall Lane, John Eustace is upbeat.

“I don't think the confidence has ever gone,” he told the media on Thursday, citing “lots of circumstances why we've let leads slip or conceded in difficult moments.”

It seems fair to file Dion Sanderson’s sending off last weekend among those. Next to it, is a rather large file marked injuries. But the likes Jacob Widell Zetterström, Alex Mowatt and Max Johnston are back, and Patrick Agyemang and Matt Clarke are beginning to return to training. Eustace can now see the mist clearing.

He said: “To have all these players back in the group is great, but the most important thing is we start winning some games and getting the results. We can all talk about players coming back and not getting the results, but ultimately, it's a results-driven business.

“The players coming back from injury have certainly given the group more confidence and there's been a buzz about the group just having these better players around the squad.”

In the centre of defence, though, there is still a gaping hole in the senior squad, exacerbated by Sanderson’s suspension, which left emergency signing Jack Robinson as the only fit centre back. Or at least there was until Thursday lunchtime.

34-year-old former Ireland internation Shane Duffy is a Ram, having signed a two-month deal following a fortnight-long trial period. And I can tell you, having seen him at Moor Farm yesterday, he’s massive.

But Eustace hopes that he can be a figuratively big player in the dressing room too. He explained: “Some of his experience is great to have around. We've certainly missed a big presence there at the back.

“Obviously, we had Danny Bath there last year who played that part. I think we've missed that kind of senior head at the back. Hopefully, he can take that spot.”

Standing at 6’ 4”, as you might expect, Duffy’s stand-out attributes come in the air. Last season his 87 per cent aerial win rate put him in the 100^th percentile. While 4.2 aerial wins per 90 puts him in the 89^th percentile. This should come with the caveat that he played just 3.2 90s last season, last featuring for previous club Norwich in November.

But the Irishman’s numbers from 2024/25, when he started all but one league game, are similarly impressive. A 79 per cent aerial win rate sees him rank in the 97^th percentile, while 4.0 aerial wins per 90 equates to an 89^th percentile ranking. Also striking is his 98^th percentile ranking for blocks per shot faced.

A proper old school centre half is “what we've missed, basically,” Eustace said. “He'll come in and do the job. Matt Clarke is the best defender in the league in both boxes, for sure. We've certainly missed him. I think Shane is very, very similar.”

To compare, him to Derby’s reigning player of the year, Clarke also won 4.2 aerials per 90 last season, but his win rate was just 62 per cent, ranking him in the 44^th percentile. His blocks per shot number is lower too, at 0.091 (89^th percentile). But Clarke is much more influential overall. He ranked in the 93^rd percentile for clearances per 90, making 7.1 compared to Duffy’s 4.5 which places him in the 43^rd percentile.

And Clarke is in the top five per cent of most positively influential defenders to his team, when accounting for the impact of all defensive actions – according to StatsBomb’s On Ball Value (OBV) metric. Duffy ranks just inside the top half (52^nd percentile).

Given the former Norwich and Brighton defender’s aerial prowess, is this the perfect game for him to come into?

“I hope so, yeah. We'll have to wait and see.” Eustace said. “I don't know if he's going to be starting yet or whatever. But if he can come on and impact and help in that area, then great. They've got obviously three or four real big boys. They put a lot of balls in the box as well. So, somebody of Shane's size will certainly help.”

Questions remain about what this means for the talent pathway, and opportunities for the likes of Raymond Offor. Eustace “absolutely” remains fully committed to the club’s Category One academy, adding: “There's nothing better when you've got your own players.

“It's also really important that if they're good enough, they get the opportunity. If they're not good enough, it can also have the reverse effect.”

This is the start of a hectic three-game week so Derby “have to manage the numbers for the game on Saturday”, according to the head coach. Alongside Duffy, there are questions over Henrik Meister’s fitness. “He’s still a bit sore” after going off with a knock last weekend.

But at least his side get the travel out of the way before hosting Norwich and Bolton. “I think to have two home games in that short period certainly does help. Certainly, from a physical point of view.”

Millwall

The Lions are “in the midst of an injury crisis” says Stephen of Millwall podcast Chat with Chaps. “We’ve been decimated across the board in all honesty.”

Like Eustace, Millwall fans expect their side “to be in and around the top eight,” according to Stephen. Alex Neil’s men rank first in the Championship for accurate crosses, and second for accurate long balls. But the idea that they are purely a route one side is false.

Instead, their style is “a little bit mixed. We do obviously have the option to go direct, but we try and knock it around a bit”. He added that Millwall “do create chances” but struggle to take them, with last weekend’s defeat to Portsmouth a prime example.

With just one win in their last eight games, the Lions are also desperate for victory. But only one team can leave The Den victorious.