"If not, we're in trouble" - Eustace calls for patience again after Birmingham defeat
Three consecutive defeats for the first time since John Eustace’s first three games in charge; this is the lowest ebb of the head coach’s Rams tenure.
His side end a bruising week with two losses. To ten-man West Brom, who had not won at Pride Park in 23 years, and Birmingham City, in what was just the second loss in seven games where Eustace has faced a club he previously managed.
That is not to say that the 46-year-old’s job prospects are terminal – he has brought Derby back from worse positions that this. Next weekend’s game at fellow relegation zone dwellers Burnley could have big ramifications though.
While Eustace asks for patience, the looming question is whether the board see the need for that. The Rams boss said: “I assume so, yeah. If not, we're in trouble, aren't we?”
At what point did his side first think that they were in trouble on Saturday afternoon, though? When Carlos Vicente cancelled out Bobby Clark’s opener within three minutes? When substitute Paik Seung-Ho nodded Birmingham in front? Or was it when a miscommunication left Jacob Widell Zetterström in no man’s land? Fortunately, Sondre Langås made a last-ditch block to deny Jay Stansfield, after he cleared a cross which his goalkeeper had come for.
The Rams had made an energetic start to Saturday’s battle with Birmingham. Henrik Meister and Mo Fuseini were vital outlets down the flanks, looking to exploit the space left in behind Birmingham’s high press. Back in the team following a three-week lay-off, captain Carlton Morris’ hold-up play was important too.
“I thought he was excellent. I thought he gave us a platform to play off,” Eustace reflected. “Obviously, he's going to get fitter. Obviously, he hasn't trained much for the last three weeks, but you can see the effect that he has. He was excellent today.”
It was the skipper who released Szmodics down the left to cross, but the ball was just behind Fuseini. That summed up Derby’s problem really, for all of their threat in behind and touches in and around the box, they could not create clear-cut chances.
Right on cue, Chris Davies’ side started to do just that instead. In a frantic couple of minutes, Danish striker August Priske headed the ball in from an offside position, before Derby survived that lapse at the back. Then Tomoki Iwata drilled narrowly wide from the edge of the box.
Clark opened the scoring for Derby after 40 minutes, “against the run of play” Blues boss Chris Davies would later argue. After Morris headed the ball down for Szmodics, the Ipswich loanee threaded the Rams’ number eight through. Having made an excellent run down the inside-left, Clark could meet the pass and drill it in at James Beadle’s near post.
But within two minutes, Birmingham were level through a move from one winger to the other. Liam Millar’s cross finding Vicente who rose above Charlie Taylor at the back post to nod in.
Eustace said: “We need to be better getting caught in possession and then defending the far post.”
Davies, in contrast, saw the goal as “important, just to steady us a little bit”.
Derby suffered a further blow just two minutes into the second half when Henrik Meister went down following a blow to the back of the head. After a lengthy stoppage, the Dane was stretchered off but “seems okay” and following concussion protocols.
Eiran Cashin fired wide on the hour following a couple of Derby corners, before Birmingham won one of their own off Joe Ward after Zetterström denied Alex Cochrane from distance. Millar dropped the corner over the Derby number one for Paik to head in from a yard out.
Clark then rifled wide before Zetterström made an excellent flying stop keep out Jay Stansfield. His next stop to deny Ethan Laird fell to the feet of Luis Vázquez, who blazed the ball into the North Stand very close range.
During fifteen minutes of added time Rams threw everyone forward in search of an equaliser, with wide men Ward and substitute Ryan Hedges joining Langås in a back three. Having punched Fuseini’s cross as far as Szmodics, Beadle then got his right hand to the Ireland international’s volley.
And the number 11 was denied again when Christoph Klarer cleared his 102nd minute effort off the line before Morris volleyed wide.
The need for clear cut chances
As I identified in the preview for this game, there is a huge gulf between Derby’s ranking for touches in the opposition box, and their chance creation numbers when compared to the rest of the Championship. It is something that Eustace referenced in his programme notes too.
Against Birmingham, the Rams had 37 touches in the opposition box to Davies’ side’s 20. While Derby amassed 18 shots compared to Birmingham’s 19, they created three big chances (missing two) to their visitors’ five (missing three). And Eustace’s side’s xG was almost three times lower than that of their opponents at 1.11 to the Blues’ 3.17.
Part of this comes down to where the shots come from of course, with Derby taking eight from outside the box to Birmingham’s five. It is also down to strong defending from Christoph Klarer and co. - seven of Derby’s attempts were blocked compared to just two of the Blues’.
I asked Eustace about this. He said: “We've just obviously got to take our chances and be clinical. I think we've lost 30 goals from last season, who aren't in the team. Carlton coming back is great. He got 10 last year, and Sammie, you know, six or seven [it was three last season for Derby, but in just 13 games].
“But we haven't got many other natural finishers available at the moment, and that obviously is the hardest thing to do, is put the ball in the net.”
The number of crosses could also be a factor, because while their 5.90 per match ranks Derby fifth in the division, their accuracy percentage of 21.9 per cent ranks as squarely mid-table. They are also taking lots of touches on the sides of the box before crossing, which with a success rate of 19.7 per cent success rate for crosses into the box from open play, will skew things.
Morris’ return helps the Rams dominate the box; he had the most touches in the opposition box of any player on Saturday (11). His link up play will need to lead to more clear shots than the current average of just of 1.14 per game and move closer to last season’s average of 1.95 per game.
Let us hope that more goals and points then follow
Goals: Clark 40’ | Vicente 42’, Paik 63’.
Derby (4-2-3-1): Zetterström (GK); Ward, Langås, Cashin (Hedges 85’), Taylor (Salvesen 90+2’); Ozoh (Blackett-Taylor 85’), Clark; Fuseini, Szmodics, Meister (Fraulo 54’); Morris (C).
Unused substitutes: Vickers (GK); Johnston, Sanderson, Nyambe; Mowatt.
Birmingham City (4-2-3-1): Beadle (GK); Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Solís (Paik 60’), Iwata; Vicente (Lund Hansen 90’), Stansfield (Fry 90’), Millar (Laird 73’); Priske (Vázquez 73’).
Unused substitutes: Allsop (GK); Buchanan; Fujimoto, Ducksch.
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